The Rambling Redneck

Commentary on the Zeitgeist

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Doubling down on misery

I watched President Bush’s speech and still think the plan will not work. If the government borrows that much money the value of the dollar will fall causing commodities such as oil and food to rise; pushing families off the precipice and previously performing mortgages into default. Then we are back to the cascading wave of
Failures we are facing now, only in a much worse position.

The problem is not declining home values:

The problem is too much leverage.
The problem is Bear Sterns at levered at 50 to 1
The problem is Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac at 60 times leverage
The problem is Lehman Brothers levered at 40 to 1.

Banks are falling in direct proportion to their leverage, with normal reserve requirements the GSEs would have been first.

More borrowing will not fix this and deleveraging is inevitable thus a recession is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the unsustainable status quo will only draw out the misery.

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